09_18 September through rose-tinted goggles

Poles have come back home from the summer vacation. The weather was nice (it still is at the time of the September measurement) and, despite the algae that made it impossible to swim in the sea at some locations, our compatriots have managed to find some repose. Furthermore, the 300+ back-to-school benefit was an opportunity for parents of school-aged children to fix up their home budget at least little. That said, it is not surprising that the Consumer Index has ventured in the high values range again, settling at 7.8, which has been the highest outcome for a long time (save for April and June this year).

So far, it seems that the average consumer is not troubled with the affair concerning the age limit for Supreme Court justices. In fact, the average consumer is more likely to don a t-shirt adorned with the Anchor (the symbol of the Polish Underground State) or hussar wings, than with the word constitution spanning across the chest. And the recent events only reinforce their optimism. One of such events is Poland’s recent promotion to developed market status, which puts us among the world’s top 25 economies. Add to that the fact that, so far, the 500+ and 300+ programmes, as well as other social benefits, have not blown up the country’s budget (in fact, the 2019 budget plan forecasts a record-breakingly low deficit), and maybe it actually makes sense to buy into the typical consumer’s optimism, and look at the world through rose-tinted goggles? Despite the odd deficit here and there…

This perspective makes the turn of September, as well as October and the months to come immensely interesting. What will they bring us, when the heatwave fades, the local government election campaign gets into gear, and the government’s conflict with EU institutions concludes one way or another, bringing the inevitable consequences? Let’s hope that the nearest future does not give us any reason to hastily throw away the rose-tinted googles that we’ve barely managed to put on.

Michał Rogowski

Client Service & Business Development Director