03_2017 The TNS Consumer Index_Carefully and ambiguously
The TNS Consumer Index has grown only by a single percentage point month on month, and improved by barely 3 pp. year on year. The cause is lack of coherent social evaluation of the economic status of the country and households. Furthermore, we haven’t observed the seasonal boost in moods that usually comes in the first quarter of the year as a result of the aggregated impact of short-term factors and a long-term trend. This is an outcome that may come across as surprising in view of the favourable macroeconomic reports concerning the condition of the job market and changes in the level of income of households.
For over ten months the social evaluation of the current economic situation of households has been less favourable than views on the economic status of the country in general. This is a phenomenon that has resulted in the consumers becoming cautious in their forecasts concerning further improvement of the economic status of their households.
Moods in the media continue to grow, with an increasing amount of positive reports about the economic trend, job market, demand, and investments. Still, the upturn in social moods is not widespread. In most cases, the consumers believe that the economic situation of the country is currently the same as it was 12 months ago, and that in a year from now nothing is going to change either.
However, respondents from lower-income segments, consumers who experienced difficulties on the job market, consumers aged 24 or younger, people with comprehensive, junior-secondary, or vocational education, and households with 3 or more members, have decreased the percentage of negative opinions, which tend to shift towards neutral or positive. On the other hand, the yoy number of negative opinions grows in the case of inhabitants of cities with a population over 200 000, people with higher education, or the managerial class. The inconsistency in these views has brought inertia to the aggregated consumer moods index.
Marcin Idzik
Associate Director
http://www.tnsconsumerindex.pl/index_en.php?month=2017-02
