06_Has this become a fixe trend? June TNS Consumer Index
I’m happy to be able comment on the June TNS Consumer Index values. Firstly, June is my favourite month, and secondly at +3.6%, the Index is now the highest since September 2008 (or in over nine years!). It’s a great opportunity to remind that Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September 2008, and the global economic crisis commenced.
So where do the current positive evaluations come from? As unemployment rates drop, people begin to pressure their employers to increase their salaries. Inflation is no longer a threat, and it remains at a healthy 2%. The fuel sector also brings good news, with crude oil prices dropping – in connection with a rather good condition of the zloty, the outcome is that fuel prices are becoming lower too. Media moods (according to the Newspoint monitoring service) indicate a stable situation as well.
Surprisingly, reports of terrorist attack in Western Europe make Polish citizens more convinced that they’re living in a safe country, far away from the terrorist threat. The Polish society also seems largely unconcerned by recent political developments, seeing the competition between the government and the opposition as an inherent aspect of our political landscape.
But is it safe to pronounce a fixed trend? I’m going to be cautious this time, as global economy has still not stabilised itself – we might have become used to the notion of Brexit, but the threat of Greek bankruptcy still looms, and potential troubles in Italy remain an issue as well. Matters may also take a turn for the worse in our own back yards – let’s not forget that the government is working on several Acts that they society might not welcome gladly, one of these being the obligatory TV licence act.
Going back to the June TNS Consumer Index results, I would like to point to the considerable disproportion in how the society evaluates the current economic situation. People living in rural areas are highly satisfied (+7.0%), whereas respondents from the biggest cities still expressed negative opinions (-3.0%). Results of the 500+ programme are also visible, as mood in 3+ households grow (+13.7%), whereas single-person households recorded the lowest scores since December 2016 (-9.2%). The unemployed have become substantially polarised in their views as well (-11.4% vs. a positive-value result in the previous months), just like managers (+10.7% vs. a negative-value result last month).
Numerous surveys tell us that Poles don’t like to think of the future, nor do they plan far ahead. Thereofre, it might just make sense to quote Horace, and say Carpe Diem. Let’s enjoy the upcoming vacation season, pleasant weather, and abundance of seasonal fruits!
Safe summer travels!
Piotr Chojnowski
Account Director
