05_TNS Consumer Index: Still in the black
May has brought sunny days to Poland, as well as warm temperatures and the TNS Consumer Index in the positive values range (at 0.5 pp.). Although the current value has fallen 1.5 pp. below April levels, it has to be kept in mind that this is still a high result given that we haven’t seen the Index in the black two months in a row since 2008, or the time of the global financial crisis.
It seems that the European Committee’s forecast predicting a decrease in unemployment rates as well as growing salaries and GDP in 2017, has been reflected in consumer moods. Even though we observe mixed moods in the society as far as the current political climate is concerned, Poles seem to evaluate the country’s current economic status, and the financial status of their households, better than before.
Compared with May 2016, general evaluations of the Poland’s economic status have improved by 6 pp., though still remain below values recorded in April 2017. As was the case last month, views on the current economic situation (vs. 2016) remain stable at 19%, or 9 pp. above May 2016. Consumers also seem to have a brighter view of the future – 25% of Poles believe that in a year the country’s economic situation is going to be better than it is now. This result is 5 pp. above values from May 2016.
As was the case with the country’s economic condition, the consumers’ views on the status of their households are also more favourable than a year ago (5 pp. in favour of the current result). Similar moods can be seen with regard to forecasts for our financial situation in the future – the percentage of respondents expressing optimistic opinions is higher than in May 2016 in this case as well.
This months’ TNS Consumer Index value peaked for the young consumers (ages 25 to 39), people living in rural areas, 3+ households, and also well as among the unemployed - which might partly result from the 500+ programme. Interestingly, the Index rose by over 5% vs. last month among managers (though it still remains in the red at -2.2).
If the positive trend continues over a longer period, the significance might be that the economic climate is going to stabilise despite the emotive discussions concerning current government policy. In such case the resultant moods would improve over time. Still, we will have to wait for the coming months to verify these predictions.
Robert Bajek
Account Director
